We live in an ever accelerating, ever more challenging (business) world. The corporate society is captivated by technology as response times have to be decreased constantly. People become ever faster with their mobile phones, high speed internet, WiFi at the coffee shop and ultimately their “CrackBerries”.
I like to call it the one-second-economy, and I like it! Gone are the times when you had to send a fax or a letter and wait not minutes but hours or days for a reply. The current potential and tools for speed and efficiency are every entrepreneur’s dream and with the means at our disposal we should all be benefiting from the El-Dorado environment.
Do you ever wonder what the multitude of technological advances have done and are continuously doing to our economies? Some five years ago, at the end of the tech & internet bubble I developed an economic theory (called HEPT), factoring in the changes in our present economy and concluded that our business landscape would never be the same again. There are several core factors that now more than ever play in to the behaviour of our economies. Those factors are technology, communication, information flow and last but not least the psychology of the masses. Technology impacts our lives on a daily basis, most considerably in terms of productivity and product lifecycles.
Communication is amplifying our efficiency as we can exchange knowledge with our environment in split-seconds. The flow of information is impacting our daily lives substantially as any kind of information is made available to us anywhere at any time. They call it the information age; hence we are living inside a stream of awareness generated by the millions of resources of information. Inevitably, the accessibility of information renders us more able to make educated decisions. Also, well positioned in a flow of information we are able to position and re-position ourselves and our companies in an ever changing business environment. Finally, the public psychology is playing a crucial role in the evolution of our economies as the state of mind can tilt economic cycles in either direction. As awareness is raised and the general public is educated about economic events it is safe to say that our world is becoming ever more aware and knowledgeable to take the right economic decisions. I wonder if the “Great Depression” would even be possible in our time; I don’t think so…
The keywords on everbody’s lips are speed and efficiency. Take for example travelling; a few years ago flying was still less affordable. Today we can span the globe for next to nothing if we fly commercial and also, private aviation is living a substantial boom these days so that we all can fly around in well-catered jets at the equivalent of the cost of a business class ticket in the 1990s.
Accelerated global economic evolution and competition is ultimately the best thing that can happen to us. Prices for most common consumer goods are falling. Only luxury goods, through their well built brands, are withstanding the competition; I believe that prestigious products will remain costly as the demand from emerging economies will keep fuelling prices. The prices of gemstones and gold have gone through the roof; the last time I checked the price per ounce of gold was round about $840 which is the highest price it has ever reached.
I firmly believe that the economic progression of our globalised world is no longer depending on simple supply and demand factors. Further, looking at the internationally-linked financial markets it is neither any longer a matter of reducing money supply or raising interest rates to control or to stabilise a currency. At the turn of the century we have hit the accelerator button and now seem to be in economic hyper-drive. China and India are becoming more and more affluent members of the worldwide business community giving clever marketers access to billions of new consumers. In light of these considerations, who is willing to believe that the “laws” and theories of economics of the 20th century still apply today?
In my theory I came to the conclusion that our world is driving itself to an ever more productive but at the same time volatile business environment where the up-cycles will last longer and the down-cycles will correct themselves at a much faster pace. It is only logical that such an adjustment takes place as we dispose of the tools to spot change much faster and we are more educated which means that we can understand what is happening and are able to act accordingly.
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> Description: Patrick Gruhn on Finance and Investement
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